Since Cata, the Eastern subs are unpredictable, while the Western ones are. A lot of the changes made to WoW are not really friendly to the pay by the min/hour crowd in the East. All you need to do is follow the quarterly meetings to understand this. You and the math also do not take in to consideration that the Western sub market has stayed relatively stable since WoW opened up in the East and that it is the Eastern markets that are highly volatile and are the major reasons fro the decline in subs. They didn't, so they didn't and that's a direct reflection of WoD as a product.You assume that the 3M who came back for WoD are the same 3M that just left. Had those people found a compelling expansion some of them would have stuck around. I suppose some of you want to believe that some mystical math forced this, but that's silly. You can spin however you want, but failing to retain any of those people is terrible from a business point of view. What this misses is that while this just reverted to the trend-line, it IS bad to gain 3m and then to lose them all. Tl dr the WoD drop isn't that bad based on the trend of the last 5 years of WoW subscription figures and inb4 I am a Blizz apologist. That probably explains why Blizzard hasn't really gone into panic mode this time like they have with other subscription drops that have taken WoW below the trend line.įrom this, we can also forecast how long its going to take for WoW to hit 0 subscribers.Ġ sub day, based on the last 5 years of decline, is around November 2021. Surprisingly, WoD is actually currently performing above the trend, by about 200k subscribers. In red, a line of best fit following the decline since Q1'2011, AKA Cataclysm's second Quarter.įrom this data, we can see that WoD's decline is really nothing out of the ordinary considering the data we've been getting for the last 5 years. Here is a graph of WoW's subscriber history over the last decade. There's a lot of talk about how the 3 million subscriber loss is devastating, ded gaem, WoD is shit, no flying caused me to unsubscribe, etc but looking at the statistics for 30 seconds shows that WoD was absolutely nothing out of the ordinary in terms of the gradual subscriber decline that WoW has been facing since the beginning of Cataclysm. So it's a Saturday afternoon and what better way to spend a Saturday afternoon than to do a statistical analysis.
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